Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 1.015928 1.156832 1.306179 1.475842 1.662808 1.862121 2.090223
2025-02-09 0.787025 0.974442 1.186166 1.441442 1.739182 2.073757 2.476347
2025-02-16 0.621108 0.834965 1.091907 1.419511 1.821955 2.295920 2.891683
2025-02-23 0.475997 0.697208 0.980305 1.361932 1.854955 2.462024 3.256665
2025-03-02 0.354752 0.569176 0.862257 1.280277 1.847851 2.577395 3.569703
2025-03-09 0.281023 0.492704 0.800807 1.263908 1.921680 2.800009 4.035302
2025-03-16 0.218819 0.420977 0.734842 1.231975 1.969844 2.991729 4.474866
2025-03-23 0.183493 0.384557 0.715482 1.264391 2.110594 3.319269 5.120168
2025-03-30 0.140302 0.324966 0.649900 1.217355 2.129145 3.475409 5.537856
2025-04-06 0.110825 0.283155 0.606469 1.198937 2.187688 3.691777 6.053552
2025-04-13 0.085923 0.243628 0.559868 1.168272 2.222456 3.873388 6.528030
2025-04-20 0.071551 0.222683 0.543907 1.188114 2.339988 4.187725 7.216972
2025-04-27 0.058839 0.202642 0.527810 1.208697 2.465883 4.531920 7.985190
2025-05-04 0.047158 0.181232 0.504893 1.213490 2.565102 4.840677 8.717664
2025-05-11 0.037869 0.162833 0.484854 1.221127 2.669948 5.165547 9.494213
2025-05-18 0.028426 0.139651 0.448680 1.190566 2.701470 5.369565 10.087646
2025-05-25 0.020044 0.115179 0.403116 1.132628 2.674643 5.470926 10.517524
2025-06-01 0.015524 0.102177 0.383903 1.129693 2.753675 5.760879 11.275221
2025-06-08 0.011523 0.088470 0.359041 1.109660 2.795951 5.987046 11.935149
2025-06-15 0.009646 0.083359 0.358119 1.146773 2.958527 6.440176 13.004988
2025-06-22 0.006773 0.070332 0.328860 1.108843 2.959260 6.594000 13.559972
2025-06-29 0.004980 0.061556 0.310652 1.096034 3.012080 6.847252 14.300028
2025-07-06 0.003494 0.052743 0.289229 1.070775 3.034283 7.042075 14.942498